This year many people around the world have been making all kinds of predictions on the future yield of the US 10-Year Treasury Note. I do my own research, and I find that over the past 5 years (from July 24, 2004 to June 17, 2009):
Highest yield: 5.138% (June 26, 2006)
Lowest yield: 2.131% (December 15, 2008)
So, using simple arithmetic, the average yield was 3.6345%
And, for most of the time, the yield had been staying at above 3.5% (and more commonly above 4% until the end of 2007).
Judging from the above observations, I predict that the movement of the yield may be in the range of 3.5% to 4% for the next 2 years(i.e. until June 2011). The median will probably be around 3.75%.
Furthermore, I don't expect the yield can go beyond( and stay) at 4.638% in the next 5 years(i.e. until June 2014).
As at June 17, 2009, the yield was 3.647%.
(Warning: my prediction may be wrong)
