有機會、有眼光，有沒有彈藥？──等到運時接不到(2009/12/13)

Law is a clever investor, the yield of the following property is only 2.9%.  However, this is not a real yield. The real yield is the potential yield. He is right, because the future prospect of Wanchai is favorable.

物業交投略為放緩，投資者仍積極入市，消息人士稱，灣仔莊士敦道一百零四號全幢物業，成交價約一億二千二百萬元，買家為資深投資者羅家寶，物業於二十年間升值約十一倍。上述灣仔莊士敦道一百零四號全幢，樓高四層，地下面積約一千二百方呎，一至三樓每層約九百方呎，合共約三千九百方呎，剛以約一億二千二百萬元易手，現時物業月租金約二十九萬元，料回報約兩厘九。有代理透露，買家為資深投資者羅家寶，原業主於八九年購入上述物業，當時作價約一千萬元，持貨至今二十年，現將物業轉售，帳面獲利約一億一千萬元，物業期內升值約十一倍。

The following transaction is also a real case. A certain developer is interested to buy the whole block. Up to now, there are already about 15 transactions in the block. The following case is one of the cases. The price per gross area is $10120 / sq ft. If based on net floor area, it should be about $12000 / sq ft. However, it is still not easy to buy the whole block.

10/F 7E SHAN KWONG ROAD HAPPY VALLEY

Building age: 48 years

850呎 sold at $8602000 @$10120

transaction date: 17/11/09

Developers are interested to buy the following block. To my knowledge, developers are offering $13000 / sq ft (based on R&V net floor area) to flat owners, and still find difficult to gether 85% share... If the $13000 represents land price, plus $4000 construction & finance cost, then the total cost will be $17000 / sq ft. Even if the new flat price is $20000 /sq ft., it is not expensive compared to its cost. If you want developers to sell flats in central areas cheaply, you are dreaming...

財團26億 洽購銅鑼灣中央樓
擬重簽新合約 先付5萬訂金表誠意

銅鑼灣中央樓舊樓併購計劃，由於在今年8月底限期前，仍未集齊85%業權的合約規定，已遭擱置，惟近日再度獲本地發展商財團，重發展商積極併購

講開日出呢塊地, 好多人連佢既來歷都唔清楚, 仲成日以為成個 86 區都係十乂既.

HK government does not have sufficient experience in dealing with large influx / outflux of capital... In 1998, there was large outflux of capital, causing the government to spend over $100 billion to buy stocks and push up HIBOR to 300%. It seems that HKMA is too nervous when there is large influx / outflux of capital. It should be noted that under the pegged exchange rate system, capital flows will fluctuate greatly since the exchange rate cannot be flexibily adjusted.

HKMA director receives $8 million annual salary, but he likes to see more balanced flow of capital.

陳德霖今早在一項研討會上公開表示，由去年10月開始，到現時流入港元的流動資金已超過6,400億港元。這麼多的流動資金肯定會對香港資產巿場帶來上升壓力。他指出，在熱錢流入的刺激下，本地房地產市場連升10個月，價格已回復至金融海嘯前的水平。

To: Beckham

因為他的目標讀者不是你, 而有一些人又非常喜歡看那類文章

 Today I saw an artcle (by Ng) in Mingpao, I have the following responses:

* Ng is talking about the $20000 /sq ft luxury flats. Do you think these flats are targets of the so-called 打工仔? Maybe they are 打工仔 from ibanks. In fact, there are many flats in the price range $3000 - $5000 /sq ft. Even the recent estate in Junk Bay, the price is as low as $4000 /sq ft. One more question: why didnt Ng buy a flat early this year when there was panic selling in property mkt?

看豪宅呎價動輒炒上2萬元，身兼港區全國人大代表的資深銀行家吳亮星慨歎樓市供求已經失衡︰「你咪炒囉﹗但用的人(打工仔)用不起，租金便會追不上去﹗」他給予打工仔一個直截了當的忠告︰「如果不趕用，就不用現在買樓了。」

* There is large influx of capital, but the transaction volume of stock and property mkts is not excessively large.

香港是一個很特別的市場，「資金來去的自由度太大，而香港又是最緊貼中國這個新興市場的地區。」所以吳亮星認為，「很難分辨投機或投資。5000多億元資金流入，當中有投資移民，但投機成分實在難免，要判斷泡沫幾時爆破實在不容易。」

* There are currently 50% population living in NT. Why living in NT is not 平衡社會的矛盾? Note that most new 居屋 is also situated in NT.

他說政府要提供的供應，不求高質素，做到實而不華，讓中產人士上車便可以。「你沒有居屋(供應)，又叫我要搬去新界住，怎能平衡社會的矛盾。」