網誌分類:樓市漫步 |
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網誌日期:2009-09-18 18:09
屯門區樓市因九龍南線通車而熱炒已成公認事實,更因反覆報導而成為明日黃花,筆者在7月份因應坊間所謂「升到屯門藍燈籠」之論,為文反駁那是交通改善的結果,已是傳媒當中較早指出是項現象,但總不及一眾炒屯門盤的精明炒家之先知先覺。往後跟風作出論述者已是後知後覺,更有行家對此胡亂套用,例如有權威財經報章以「葡萄園受惠於九龍南線通車」為題,撰文者不去親身到現場,也應該打開地圖看看,再不然想一想葡萄園居民又怎會不駕車而去坐港鐵呢?
筆者因撰寫新書而搜集各區樓市資料,對未來各區交通建設早已了然於胸,讀者們也可以到路政署及港鐵網站按索驥,自不然對各區樓市的未來發展有一概念。現時除西港島已確認走線及各車站出口位置外,好幾條鐵路仍在諮詢階段,包括南港島線(東段)(西段因途經數碼港為免政治爭議而無限期擱置)、觀塘線延線、沙中線及廣深港高鐵香港段。
既然是諮詢,就會有不同的方案,但大多數的選擇分別不大,比如究竟在海怡半島、黃埔花園或利東邨近那一座建出口之類;甚至廣深港高鐵即使因菜園村事件而被社會人仕熱炒,相信亦是大局已定只有微調。(順帶一提,筆者支持「共用路線方案」,總站設在錦上路就快好省了!)然則沙中線九龍城區內一段卻有較大的改動,值得一提。
從九龍城向南望,可以看到兩個高層屋苑遙遙相望,活像一對括號,分別是長實發展的傲雲峰,及恆基發展的翔龍灣,這兩個屋苑偏偏就是新鐵路方案之爭的男女主角。附圖引自沙中線九龍城段公眾諮詢便覽,原初的設計是沿土瓜灣道,在翔龍灣附近設土瓜灣站,後改動為沿馬頭圍道及馬頭涌道,在傲雲峰附近設站。官樣文章是這樣寫的:「修訂的走線將令沙中線的服務範圍更加貼近人口密集的地區,令更多居民可以更方便地享用鐵路服務。」

如果大家的焦點只在土瓜灣站的話,一定看少很多東西,此修訂方案同時亦改動了馬頭圍站的位置,站在馬頭圍道的話當然看不到開閂括號,更加看不到一個隱形大括號──只要行入靠背壟道,就會看到活像大括號的半山壹號及富甲半山,距離地鐵站只有一個街口!
細心比較兩條路線及四個車站,修訂後的方案對政府來說有更多可發展及發售的土地,例如市政大廈、四間小學。既然山谷道邨可以推平來入勾地表,新方案沿線的樂民新邨、馬頭圍邨及真善美邨亦可以因應「發展的需要」來照辦煮碗。反之舊方案最大的得益者是兩旁的工業大廈及區內最大的私人土地持有者──恆基屬下的煤氣公司──旗下的煤氣北廠。
讀者們或許認為筆者是陰謀論,將公眾諮詢描繪成財團之間的角力,以至政府保留土地的苦心,事實上這些改動的結果,關係千百人的財富,余若不信,請問問傲雲峰與翔龍灣的小業主。






wallace 2009-11-18 11:37
Beckham 2009-09-22 23:30
I am not sure how they are comparable properties...need to visit your flat to have a view. Hang Lung certainly has an interest to buy the whole block. As I said before, the process may take 10 years, 20 years or even 30 years. In fact, they have interests in many blocks in good location, not just your block. This means that waiting Hang Lung to buy is meaningless. Anyway, it is a nice flat. You can simply rent the 居屋out.
脫苦海2009-09-23 00:54
HeyHeyHey 2009-09-22 17:25
To Beckham:
Paterson Street is a convenient place to live. My property is located at TownGas Avenue/ I.T. bontiques which is near the edge of Victoria Park.
I have performed the land search for comparable properties (I am an auditor so I used to do this). The results (which is the actual consideration) is much higher than the one shown in the real estates.
And I do not know the intentions of Hang Lung
1. They secretly negotiated with my block's owners and acquired a lot of flats. However, they just rent it out.
2. At the same time, they always have a representative to attend the meetings of 業主立案法團 without saying one words.
3. They continuously fund the decoration of the street and also funds us for decoratio, e.g. install the block's gate for free.
So, I do not know the intention.
The living environment is okay, so the desire of ''improving living condition'' does not exist.
My another property is 1.5m 居屋 in Siu Sai Wan. To be honest, it has an illiquid market and not much appreciation upon the purchase. It's a 雞肋 to me.
Hope I clarify your questions.
To 脫苦海.
Thanks for your articles regarding Real Estate. You have provided us with insights about the market. Keep up your good work.
脫苦海2009-09-22 21:27
不單止銅鑼灣,幾乎整個灣仔區的北部都是與商爭地的,所以灣仔區的標題是「與商爭地」,有朝一日銅鑼灣一帶變成像旺角那樣的樓上舖,發展商連重建都慳返,所以佢無必要收晒全幢樓來拆建。
GP-02A 2009-09-21 10:13
下? 乜原來咁奸, 咁四叔同翔龍灣d住戶咪好唔抵? 咁樣利益輸送都得? 大家都係發展商乍wo?
另外恭喜脫兄完成新作. ^^
脫苦海2009-09-21 19:54
Beckham 2009-09-21 01:10
Do not just see the real estate advertisement. Let me touch your question...with $1.5M, there is not much choice in the urban city. You better visit Wanchai and CWB to see view the flats yourself.
Beckham 2009-09-21 00:08
To HeyHeyHey, I think Paterson st is a convenience place, and is still pretty good for living. I do not understand your mentioned "another house costs around 1.5M". Are you asking "how" to invest or "what" to invest?
HeyHeyHey 2009-09-20 03:48
I have a flat (around 950 sq.feet) in Paterson Street. It's a so-called high-class flat in 60-70s but now it's very old.
I heard that Hang Lung Group is secretly purchasing flat for re-development. Do you thing I better wait or just sell it?
My concern is ''"50年樓齡的強拍門檻降至80%". I cannot control whether Hang Lung will knock my door one day, say, ''hey, i want to buy your flat'' or just being the 20% being forced to sell at cheap price.
If fortunately Hang Lung wants to buy my flat, whether I can 開天殺價 (sorry to use this wording, but everybody would like to squeeze out every pounds, right?) same as those in 裕民坊? I do not understand the formal procedures or how to protect my interest. Simply put, how I can avoid being exploited by "50年樓齡的強拍門檻降至80%"?
Another question is, my flat costs abt 3.5m (from real estae advertisemnet), I do not understand why the price is even cheaper than other comparable location (say, Wan Chai's Elizabeth House)?
What strategy you would suggest?
No financial burden with another house costs around 1.5M.
Thanks!
David
脫苦海2009-09-20 20:47
Beckham 先生的答案已很全面,筆者想補充一點:你諗住層舊樓可以賣貴一點,其實只要你在年初換一間好的物業,一樣可以作同樣的升值,而你又享受多半年理想居住環境。比如世貿中心後面果三幢樓,市價是四千,收購價是一萬都不成功,你覺得你間舊樓可以有更好的情況嗎?
守株待兔的故事是有個農人見到隻兔仔撞死在樹上,就日日不耕田等第二隻兔仔,其實佢係被眼前的境象蒙蔽,現時的樓市境況,根本就不是常態,舊樓只有旺市有人買,其實即使你有水晶球,知道去年末今年初是低位都無用,因為低位的時候舊樓是乏人問津的,你想套現都套唔到。
hhbkhhbk 2009-09-20 00:21
i can say that this is one of the best blogs i ever read on the net.
i read almost all your articles in this blog, thank you very much 脫苦海兄,
i got a problem and cant really make the decision what to do in the current economic environment.
i am planning to buy flat within 2 years of time for my family and now got 12M for the first installment, now aimming to buy property of 40-42M in Mei Foo, choose it becoz of its convenience traffics. Always think of whether to wait or to act now. coz at this time all the property price has reflected their good news already. Should i wait abit more or buy now?
脫苦海2009-09-20 20:45
其實美孚樓價始終受制於樓齡,尤其是當你發現美孚比太古城大五至十年,所以以現價計美孚再升有限,但你要佢跌亦唔跌得去邊,比如大市有20%波幅,美孚可能只有10-15%。升又升唔足,跌又跌唔足。無需要急於現階段買,因為買早同買遲,樓價都唔會差幾遠,美孚收租佬就多,好少人炒的。
同係美孚差別可以很大,你就算買都有排睇,千萬不要相信報章上那些盲搬炒股理論落樓市的寫手文章。比如最近美孚石油氣果塊地就令到某些座向出現跌樓貨,如你不介意面壁及涯工程,一兩年內可以執到平貨。
wake up 2009-09-19 22:18
Thanks again 脫苦海兄,
I tried walking from the Elements to 柯士甸站 recently, 5-8 min walk without cover but I believe it'll be better designed with cover later (or with underground connection), when the new railway station to Shenzeh/Guangzhou's starting to develop. Btw, I m looking forward to see your new book.
wake up 2009-09-19 20:57
Dear 脫苦海兄,
I hope that I found that I know your blog earlier haha. Thanks for your reply and invaluable advice!
For "50年樓齡的強拍門檻降至80%", I deem it might not be that applicable to my building (unless to about 50%) as I know not many applicants want to sell their house with great convenience. Even so, I wonder at what price will the shopping price for usually? 1/2 of the price of the new house? $12,000/sw feet x 1/2 or something like that?
I might have about 12M budget to move. My big problem would be that my wife (not driving) need to work at Sheung Shui (close to East Rail Line), I have great difficulties to persuade her to move to West Kowloon region.
Once again, thank you for your advice
脫苦海2009-09-19 21:59
股市又好,樓市又好,千萬不要被眼前景象蒙蔽。今日你見到田生集團兩億收大角咀爛樓可以用四億賣比恆基,諗住等發展商Shopping,其實一如守株待兔:呢d咁的旺市係反常,而唔係常態,在絕大部份的時間內,舊樓係乏人問津的。想想西九頂心杉海明閣,有些人要求一萬蚊至肯收票,今日一百萬都賣唔去到要98萬。
置業是人生大計,要諗的是以十年計的事,牽涉是幾十萬上百萬,不要被小小的方便或金錢而誤了大事。其實兩鐵合併後,由西九去東鐵方便左好多。你個budget住曼克頓山都得喇!或者住九龍站漾日居,由柯士甸站一樣可以搭東鐵。
Cats_in_hats 2009-09-19 00:40
Dear 脫苦海 CHing,
I've been reading your blog for some time and found you put a lot effort to that blog and it's very informative! I m very grateful you share with us!
I have a question about my 45-year old apartment in Kowloon Tong (It's just 1 single block building). It was located at Cornwall St, just in front of One Beacon Hill. It's noisy, old and looks really outdated compared with many new houses nowadays. However, the location is 3-min walk to the railway/MTR/Festival Walk, usable area about 1200 square feet, 41 region etc.
Such kind of building is hardly the piece of cake for most people and I understand the potential for the price to rise is rather limited. Should I sell it and change horse to some new buildings in West Kowloon, which have a better potential to rise in the near future?
CK and Sino seem to have new projects in Beacon Hill and Broadcast Drive respectively, should I wait for them to be released to boost the price a bit before the selling?
脫苦海2009-09-19 18:06
是否記得以前講過屋多過戶廿幾萬個?你的樓現時不會這樣,始終是值錢的地段,但不要期望升值,你想想15年後樓齡就60年了!不過話返轉頭,政府計劃修例50年樓齡的強拍門檻降至80%,現時地產商不去勾地,就是寧願等修例通過到舊區Shopping,等唔等呢五年才是你最需要考慮的。
人生有幾多個十年?五年是半個十年,可能是一個至半個樓市周期,但明擺著的是你的物業將會跑輸大市,皆因別人有更佳的選擇,如果畢架山那些新樓放出街,樂觀看可以帶動區內樓價,但悲觀看人家將賣舊樓換新樓及大樓,到時出貨比現在更難。
你要想想的是:跑輸大市是必然,同區帶動是或然,珠玉在前出貨難則是有先例可援。例如奧運站屋苑一個一個地入伙,大角咀的舊樓,即使是質素較佳的大同新村都不為所動,除非田生集團摸上門(或者你去找他們),不然換就比不換為佳。